Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, Best sports betting advice know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps which can be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. Simply because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For example, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that may help you in the end. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.